What the local election results have shown us

The party is over for UKIP. If UKIP had got its act together after last year's referendum, there was a chance that it could have survived Thursday's mauling at the polls. Instead, the party went on a prolonged period of internecine warfare. The idea that UKIP voters loaned their vote to the Conservatives because of [...]


Early thoughts on the local election results

With very few votes counted overnight, we only have a small snapshot this morning, but the the snapshot does paint a picture. My predictions in Labour marginals have relied on a substantial drop in the UKIP vote combined with a direct swing from Labour to the Conservatives. This is what has happened in Lincolnshire, with [...]

Labour Marginals – Great Grimsby

In some ways, this is a difficult one to call. According to Paddy Power, the betting is going the Conservatives' way. In the 2010 general election, Victoria Ayling was the Conservative candidate, and she very nearly unseated Austin Mitchell. His majority was just 714, however, that result has to be viewed through the prism of [...]

Labour Marginals – Darlington

When the Conservative Party does very well, Darlington usually turns blue. The last Conservative to hold the seat was Sir Michael Fallon. He was Darlington's MP from 1983 - 1992. He lost the seat to Alan Milburn, and the current Labour incumbent is Jenny Chapman who has held the seat since 2010. Her majority in [...]

Paul Nuttall is wrong to stand in Boston and Skegness

There were rumours whizzing around that Paul Nuttall was about to announce that he was going to stand in Hartlepool. He is visiting the town today. Instead, he announced he intends to be the UKIP candidate in Boston and Skegness.  Although Matt Warman, the sitting Conservative MP, voted Remain in the EU Referendum last year, [...]

Labour Marginals – Bishop Auckland

I was born and raised in Bishop Auckland. It was the constituency where I campaigned for the first time during the 1987 general election - a mere lad of 16 years. The Conservative candidate was Robin Wight who was trying to oust the incumbent Labour MP, Derek Foster. Lord Foster (as he is now) was, [...]