The party is over for UKIP. If UKIP had got its act together after last year's referendum, there was a chance that it could have survived Thursday's mauling at the polls. Instead, the party went on a prolonged period of internecine warfare. The idea that UKIP voters loaned their vote to the Conservatives because of … Continue reading What the local election results have shown us
Andrea and I met for the first time at the Conservative Party Conference in Manchester in 2009, and we have been friends ever since. Like many people, I was delighted for her when she beat Ed Balls to win Morley and Outwood in 2015. She has, though, a very small majority of 422. Andrea is … Continue reading Can you help Andrea Jenkyns in Morley and Outwood?
In some ways, this is a difficult one to call. According to Paddy Power, the betting is going the Conservatives' way. In the 2010 general election, Victoria Ayling was the Conservative candidate, and she very nearly unseated Austin Mitchell. His majority was just 714, however, that result has to be viewed through the prism of … Continue reading Labour Marginals – Great Grimsby
This seat was first fought in 1997 and mostly replaced the former seat of Langbaurgh. Richard Holt won Langbaurgh for the Conservatives in 1983. He died in 1991, and the seat was won in a by-election by Ashok Kumar for Labour. Kumar lost the seat to Michael Mates at the 1992 general election, but effectively … Continue reading Labour Marginals – Middlesbrough South and East Cleveland
This article published today on ConservativeHome is well worth a read. As it is written by a Conservative councillor in Loughborough, it is naturally promoting the Conservative cause and could be biased. What is interesting, though, is it chimes with what I think: the Labour vote is crumbling in its heartlands. Although Jeremy Corbyn is … Continue reading News from the doorstep in Loughborough – and it’s not good for Labour
The sitting MP (at least for another 24 hours or so) is Iain Wright. He won the seat in a by-election in 2004 when Peter Mandelson resigned to join the gravy train become an EU Commissioner. Wright has never enjoyed the sort of majorities Mandelson had, but in all fairness to him, the seat has tended not … Continue reading Labour Marginals – Hartlepool
When the Conservative Party does very well, Darlington usually turns blue. The last Conservative to hold the seat was Sir Michael Fallon. He was Darlington's MP from 1983 - 1992. He lost the seat to Alan Milburn, and the current Labour incumbent is Jenny Chapman who has held the seat since 2010. Her majority in … Continue reading Labour Marginals – Darlington